Pertaining to intrinsic bias, Mnr's main track traditionally favors speed at one-turn, while conforming to statistical standards of normalcy (success rates of various running styles) in route events. In accordance with this intrinsic nature, some speed-biases that set in apply ONLY to sprints. Nights when race after race is won gate-to-wire at one-turn, but horses can rally to win at a route, are not uncommon at Mnr.  

 

Now speaking to path- biases: Mountaineer's rep as a dead-rail track seemed a bit less deserved last season, as the strip played fairly for a full 80% of race-cards. As evidence, though, that the old stigma remains somewhat applicable: twenty-five of the twenty-eight path-biases that I did observe put inside trips at a disadvantage.

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As to running style, anti-speed trends are rare at Mnr, but when leaders do struggle, an anti-rail bias is almost always in play. So, when you sense that speed has the worst of it, be alert for a corresponding dead-rail bias.

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                                                                                    DAILY TRENDS

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(Temporary bias is in the eye of the beholder, but the following observations are based on decades of experience and local knowledge.)

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Wed, Sept 2 (fast) The surface played more fairly than Anthony Farrior did in gracing the Mountain with four class-dropping shippers to go winless at strongly favored odds. Fair.

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Tues, Sept 1 (fast) After consecutive inside posts saved ground to win by convincing margins, I floated notion on broadcast of a pro-rail bias.  Subsequent races contradicted that theory. Either I WAS onto something, or sadly premature in mentioning a possible bias. Probably the latter. Your call.

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Mon, Aug 31 (fast) The best horses kept winning, even as the tote kept failing to favor these identifiably superior runners. Fair

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Sun, Aug 30 (fast) Small sample size with four grass races carded. No pattern emerged. Fair.

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​Wed, Aug 26 (fast) Fair

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Tues, Aug 25 (fast) Speed and inside paths arguably at an advantage. Hard call.

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Mon , Aug 24 (fast) Six front-running winners included a 42-1 bomb. Potent pro-speed

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Sun, Aug 23 (fast) Six of eight winners led by second call..several horses did rally for 2nd from the back-half..On pace advantage.

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​​​Wed, Aug 19 (fast) All dirt and that course was fast; a slew of favored winners strongly hinted that the strip played fairly, and that did seem the case.. (fair)

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Tues, Aug 18 (fast) Off-turf even though the mountain main had dried full cycle; While no running style looked to be at any particular disadvantage, just one winner-Lost Bikini R-6- used a rail trip, and that mare arguably enjoyed an edge in quality..(anti-rail, but not pro-wide)

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Mon, Aug 17 (muddy)  Off-turf, as the main track catered to no particular running style; path-bias may have been a different matter , as our visual impression was that  buffered-out moves had the edge..it's important, though, to not use winners as sole data points in determining the grain, and it must be noted that several second place finishers, two longshots included) adhered largely to the 1 or 2 path. (your call)

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Sun, Aug 16 (Sloppy) Off-turf; a case where our visual take contradicted a cursory look at the charts..probably because Mnr crow's nest crew is worst in business at painting word picture of what transpired..pull up replays and note pains taken by jcosk to angle wider when possible (some negative -rail)

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Wednesday, Aug 12 (good) Most winners raced either wide or buffered out a bit, but nightcap result as established quitter saves ground to keep drawing away serves as glaring exception. (anti-rail?)

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Tuesday, Aug 11 (sloppy) Most winners raced notably wide ad best footing was found from 4-path out. (Anti-inside..better out wide)

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Monday, Aug 10 (sloppy) Horses got paid based on effort and race-flow, rather than path or running style. (Fair)

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Sunday, Aug 9 (fast) Lots of chalk as wide margins in the two stakes seemed merely a product of superior winners.  (Fair)

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Wednesday, Aug 5 (sloppy) Off turf ALL WEEK. Not the most potent bias, but the rail did seem dead and most winning runs were made well out from the inside. (Anti-rail)

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Tuesday, Aug 4 (fast) Formful night, as all but one winner went first or second favored. No trend seemed apparent. (Fair)

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Monday, Aug 3 (good)  Lt. Columbo could not detect any sort of bias from these races. (btw..Did he REALLY have a wife?) (Fair)

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Sunday, Aug 2 (sloppy) When the rail marker floundered to a near seven length loss at even money in the opener, you had to suspect that not much good would come from inside trips. Also, check out the form on Bashful Daisey (race 5) and explain her circling from the back-half for emphatic win. Perhaps not some planet-consuming bias, but we do intend to upgrade tonite's inside trips next time out. ( Anti-rail)

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Wednesday, July 29 (fast) Off-turf, Mountain Main fast. Just one front-running winner, and that was a .5 cinch travelling just 5-furlongs. Coincidence? In addition, several horses that controlled pace did noticeably tire.  However, since we saw no evidence of anti-rail bias normally present when speed struggles, concluding that pacesetters had worst of it could be dicey. (Anti-speed?)

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Tuesday, July 28 (muddy/good) Real-time observation was off-turf surface played fairly to different styles, but negative-rail may again have reared head. Review of cryptic, phone it in chart narratives failing to shed light, I went to the video. VERY tuff call, but can't, in all conscience, conclude that a path-bias was in play. (FAIR)

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Monday, July 27 (fast) All dirt from 4th race on, as dominant performances netted two wins, an early leader took a short dash for maidens, and clunkers from a pair of negative droppers accounted for results of another event. Sounds unbiased to us. (FAIR)

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Sunday, July 26 (fast) Five grassers offered in obvious attempt to make up for last week. With just two (not counting 440) dirts, both of which going to horses benefitting from set-up, just no way to surmise that any bias existed. (FAIR)​

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Wednesday, July 22 (fast) Just two frontrunning scores on an all-dirt card, but two other speeds ran second in photos. Wider movers at times seemed at an advantage. There was , however, some contradictory evidence.  ( NEGATIVE RAIL?)

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Tuesday, July 21 (sloppy)  Wider bids and buffered out runners dominated. Consequently, early speed suffered a bit. ( Negative-RAIL..best from 4th out)

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Monday, July 20 (fast) Aggressive styles had some edge, as all but one winner occupied first or second at the pre-stretch call. Would note that most of these winners angled well out from the fence. ( NEGATIVE-RAIL)

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Sunday, July 19 (fast) A mix of winning styles, with most winners racing 4 path or wider. Prohibitive chalk accounted for the few exceptions. ( NEGATIVE RAIL)​​

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Wednesday, July 15 (fast) Watch race-4 and see the classic "peel off" pattern sometimes indicative of a dead-rail, or even wide-biased strip. Further evidence of the grain came just one race later as chronic quitter Good Holiday ($47.40) goes to Oz and returns with the heart to pass three foes-while racing four-wide. A trio of pace-setters did score, which is not characteristic of a wider-the-better closer's track. (STRONG ANTI RAIL, AND PERHAPS PRO-WIDE)

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Tuesday, July 14 (fast) With five of the six early leaders finishing first or second, it might seem that the course favored speed. But since several contenders squandered controlling leads, that might be an errant conclusion. (FAIR)

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Monday, July 13 (fast) Three grassers and a two-furlong race left just a four-race sampling of dirt races to scrutinize. No bias seemed apparent. (FAIR)

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Sunday, July 12 (fast) Off-turf, main track dry. 11 of 14 exacta finishers (not counting the 440) were part of that ticket at pre-stretch call, clearly indicating a difficult surface to close on. (Anti-closer)

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Wed, July 8 (fast) Back on turf and the main track had dried full cycle. No path or style had any apparent advantage and that's been the case for vast majority of racing cards this season. Major props to the track super. (FAIR)

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Tuesday, July 7 (good) No grass. Six winners seized command at or before the pace call, which might indicate closers had worst of it. But with several late-movers finishing second, declaring a bias could be dicey. Your call. (FAIR)

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Monday, July 6 (muddy) Again off turf as a muddy mountain main produced chalky winners that utilized a variety of running styles. (FAIR)​ 

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Sunday, July 5 (sloppy) Off turf as 5 of 8 main track winners led first call, with only one of those favored, Ralliers were able to secure minor placings. (PRO-SPEED)​

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Wednesday, July 1 (fast) Logical outcomes as favorites that fired wound up winning, while those that didn't either had "off" nites or experienced unfavorable set-ups (FAIR)

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Tuesday, June 30 (fast) Several consecutive winners saved ground, but any notion of a path-bias was counter-balanced by a pair of races taken with wide trips (FAIR)

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Monday, June 29 (fast) I challenge anyone to sort thru tonite's assortment of winning trips, paths, and prices and detect a track-bias of any type. (FAIR)

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Sunday, June 28 (muddy) Consecutive upsets in races 5 and 6 seemed to confirm a fair strip as Main Line Cipher ($14.60) closed six wide, and Pure Panic ($19.20) successfully nursed a light lead from the rail. (FAIR)

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Tuesday, June 23 (fast) Back on grass, and the Mountain Main had dried full-cycle. Dirt results were hardly Mountaineer's usual chalk-fest, but again, the strip betrayed no bias. (FAIR)

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Monday, June 22 (sloppy) No grass tonite, which meant a larger sampling of main track races to comb thru for possible trends. Nonetheless, a varied mix of winning styles and path lanes to victory clearly reflected a fair surface. ( FAIR)

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Sunday, June 21 (fast) No surprises from the five dirt races as three went to outright favorites, with the other pair taken by second chalks. No bias detectable from this perspective. (FAIR)

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Tuesday, June 16 (fast) A Five-race sample-size of dirt events on fully-dried footing saw 1-2 finishers use a variety of styles and paths. Pull up the video on Arroyo riding both his mount (#8) and Gomez's horse (#7), to boot, in the finale. This guy is GOING to prove worth the price of admission. (FAIR)​

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Monday, June 15 (good) Again off-turf, as the main track had dried considerably from Sunday. Unbelievably for the Mountain Main, last night's string of non-speed winners continued without exception. Leaving little doubt that early zip had the worst of it, five first call leaders wound up at odds of 5/2 or lower. No path bias appeared to be n play. (Anti-speed)

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Sunday, June 14 (sloppy-sealed) After the opener was wired by a non-favorite to the tune of 18 lengths, the prospect of a pro-speed trend seemed distinct. Not so fast, Sparky. Not another first-call leader (on an all-dirt occasion) would score, and several did establish clear leads and looked qualified to win. Decide for yourself, but I brand it fair. (FAIR)​

 

Tues, June 9 (fast) Another chalky night as the only winner not first or second favored fired sharply to benefit from the set up. (FAIR)

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Monday, June 8 (fast) 4/5 and 1-1 chalks took the late double, as one of them rallied from well back, and the other pressed from very close to the pace. Logical winners performing in a manner expected typified dirt outcomes. (FAIR)

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Tues, June 2 (fast) Distinct visual impression that inside trips had an advantage more than confirmed by raw results. Posts 1 and 2 accounted for eight of possible ten exacta placings from the five dirt races carded. (PRO- RAIL)

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Monday, June 1 (fast) Not considering the 440, just a five-race sampling of main-track events. Although a 7-1 winner (the cheap, but indefatigable Polyester Bride- race five) did save all the ground, the bulk of other results gave no real indication of the pro-rail conditions that would set in Tuesday. Neither did any particular style seem to have an advantage. (FAIR)

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Sunday, May 31 (fast) Four grassers plus a 440 reduce the number of relevant dirt events to just four. And with two of those won at extremely short prices, the detection of any bias would be questionable at best. (FAIR)

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Tues, May 26 (fast) A bit unusual to see half the card won by deep closers. But since the other half was wired, the strip seemed unbiased. (FAIR)

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Monday, May 25 (good) Six frontrunning winners (from eight dirt races) is a lot. Would also consider that one of non-winning speeds came with hopeless sub-zero fig baggage. Potentially tempering probability of bias, no winner paid as high as 5/2. So, there's that. Since all but one second finisher occupied portion of trifecta at first call, would at least conclude closers had worst of it.  BIG ON PACE ADVANTAGE

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Sunday, May 24 (sly) Two winning ralliers. Cicatirz in finale, was simply much the best after positioning in reasonable proximity to pace. While Change at Jamaica( race 4) likewise fired big, in addition to benefitting from setup. On pace trips had discernable edge, but more notable was pro-rail bias somewhat detectable in races 1, 6, and 8, and apparent as potent in races 4, 5, and 7.  STRONG ADVANTAGE TO INSIDE TRIPS (That's five occasions this season on which the surface played pro-rail-if you're keeping score. And from just 21 cards, which constitutes a dramatic change from last year's grain)

 

Tues, May 19 (fast) With four of the five main track races won by speed, and one of those frontrunning winners surviving heavy pressure at 14-1, an intense bias looked in play. Judging from winning paths and minor placings, the strip may have (slightly) favored inside trips..  POTENT SPEED BIAS and A BIT PRO-RAIL

 

Monday, May 18 (fast) With winners held at .2, 1.6, and 1.3 from just five dirt races, detecting any bias would be difficult at best-and the surface did, indeed, seem fair. FAIR

 

Sunday, May 17 (fast) Considered characterizing strip as anti-wide (not pro-rail), or slightly in favor of on-pace trips, but that  seemed like drawing too fine a line. FAIR

 

Tues, May 12 (fast) Three winners stormed from 12 lengths or more back, while another closed from dead-last. Speed did post a pair of scores and checked in for several seconds, one of those at huge odds.  FAIR

 

Monday, May 11 (fast) The first three races were taken by early leaders, each of which scored by a clear-margin. Rallies from well back, however, netted second in two of those events, and off -pace moves would account for several wins. FAIR

 

Sunday, May 10 (muddy) Five frontrunning winners (not counting the 440) normally would indicate a potent pro-speed bias, none of those winners, though, wound up higher than 8/5, with several held much lower. Intense pressure fielded by 2 or 3 of those horses cements my opinion on the grain.  ADVANTAGE SPEED

 

Tues, May 5 (fast) If you tuned in only for a late double that returned $194 on a pair of front-running winners (that each took extended pressure), you probably would conclude speed had the best of it. But maybe not so much if you watched the .5 chalk fold a big lead in the 6th..or a 6-furlong winner close from nearly 10 lengths back in the 4th. YOUR CALL, BUT I SEE IT AS FAIR

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Monday, May 4 (fast) Early speed continued on a roll as five-frontrunners scored, including 7-1 and 8-1 upsets.The style bias did, however, seem a bit less potent than last night-perhaps because inside paths had no detectable advantage. ADVANTAGE SPEED

 

Sunday, May 3 (fast) Non-favored early leaders took the night's first two sprint races, and speed continued to hold well-but only at one-turn, which is characteristic of the mountain main. Also, inside trips held a discernible edge, as evidenced by the 8th race winner (Versatile $11) overcoming the style-bias, albeit with a ground saving ride. STRONG ADVANTAGE SPEED-BUT ONLY IN SPRINTS..PRO RAIL

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Tues, April 28, (good) Overnight rains that rendered the footing "good" seemed to mitigate what had been a speed-favoring trend. Winning horses either ran best or got favorable set-ups. While the two routes were won from well back, notably, those winners launched powerful turn-moves and had advanced to first and second by their respective pre-stretch calls. FAIR (but no deep closing winners)

 

Monday, April 27, (fast) Nearly all winners made the lead at first call or moved to command on the turn. While most of these winners wound up at short odds, a 16-1 price on a dominating gate-to-wire trip served to underscore an obvious bias. STRONGLY PRO-SPEED.

 

Sunday, April 26, (fast) Five first call leaders won. In the three other races, one saw the leader end up second while attempting a route in a first start of the season, and another was won by a .5 favorite. EARLY SPEED HAD A CONSIDERABLE ADVANTAGE.

 

Tues, Apr 21, (fast) Four first-call leaders went on to win-not unusual at Mnr on a card that included just one route. 5-1 and 9-1 odds on a pair of those winners, however, seemed to indicate that speed had the best of it. Early leaders that did not score, either took pressure in front or appeared in need of the outing.   PRO-SPEED.

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Monday, Apr 20, (fast)-Things opened with a 16-1 upset by a first-call leader. Even so, last nite's distinct pro-speed trend did not recur. Numerous winners saved ground for large portions of their trips, and longshots able to crash trifecta tickets seemed to likewise benefit from inside journeys. So, an at least mild path-bias perhaps influenced results.  SLIGHT ADVANTAGE INNER LANE

 

 

Sunday, Apr 19 (fast)-Early leaders had decided advantage, winning four of seven (not counting the two-furlong race). Supporting that assessment-only one of those front-running winners went favored, while another paid 12-1. STRONGLY PRO-SPEED

 

 

Tues, Apr 14 (fast)- Four first -call leaders scored, but with two of those pounded below even-money and none forced to battle for command, I would not rate the surface as speed-favoring. Again, though, as dry conditions continued, it did seem difficult to pass horses thru the homestretch.  DIFFICULT TO CLOSE

 

Monday, Apr 13 (fast)- Speed and aggression raced at some advantage, as most winners secured the lead by first or second call. Notably, the inner-more of two pace combatants did go on to win in several instances. SLIGHT ON-PACE ADVANTAGE

 

Sunday, Apr 12 (fast)-Don't wise guys always jump the gun in proclaiming a bias? "Speed can't win!" was the battle-cry after just two races. I get it. With unexpectedly slow times indicating a dead surface and that Stansbury chalk blowing a big lead at just 5-furlongs, an anti-speed bias may well have looked in play. But early reports of speed's demise turned out to be exaggerated. I did think that early leaders had slightly the worst of it-but probably because inner-paths seemed dead. Nor did wide closers have a field day.  Most winners raced close to the pace and buffered out from the inside.   INSIDE QUESTIONABLE..STILL NOT KIND TO DEEP CLOSERS

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